Socio-economic assessment of Fusion energy research, development, demonstration and deployment programme
Estimating Spillover Benefits and Strategic Real Options Value of Controlled Thermonuclear Fusion Technology Considering that the expected benefits of Fusion technology are confronted with a high degree of uncertainty, the decision makers are facing the problem how to optimise the public funding of Fusion RDDD programme. Recent R&D evaluation practice and scientific literature suggest to consider all social costs and benefits, including negative and positive externality effects, while allocating public funds among multiple R&D programmes. Accordingly, it is important to take into account the positive externality effects (spillover benefits) and the strategic real options value in the evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme.
Main Objective
To contribute to the international efforts aiming at the socio-economic evaluation of Fusion energy technology (e.g. EFDA SERF programme) with an in-depth study of the spillover benefits and the strategic real options value of Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment
Specific tasks
- Identification of the main types and specific examples of positive externality effects (spillovers) of Fusion RDDD programme
- Elaboration of the integrated methodological framework that would allow for taking into account spillover benefits and real options value in the socio-economic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme
- Case study of Wendelstein 7 – X stellarator project
- Prospective evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme and policy recommendations.
Posters
Real Options Valuation of Fusion Energy R&D Programme
D.BEDNYAGIN, E.GNANSOUNOU (2010). Working paper, BPE-EPFL, June 2010.
This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black-Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R&D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: “Baseline” corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. “Accelerated” strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R&D and the advantages of accelerated development path.
Report on Task TW5-TRE-FESS/D, EFDA Socio-Economic Research on Fusion Program (SERF), July 2007
E. GNANSOUNOU, D. BEDNYAGIN, “Estimating Spillover Benefits and Social Rate of Return of Fusion Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Program: Conceptual Model and Implications for Practical Study”
Multi-Regional Long-Term Electricity Supply Scenarios with Fusion
E.GNANSOUNOU, D.BEDNYAGIN (2007). Fusion Science and Technology, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 388-393
This paper examines the global potential for deployment of fusion power through elaboration of multi-regional long-term electricity market scenarios for the time horizon 2100. The probabilistic simulation dynamic programming model PLANELEC-Pro was applied in order to determine the expansion plans of the power generation systems in different world regions that adequately meet the projected electricity demand at minimum cost given the quality-of-service and CO2 emissions constraints. It was found that the deployment of total 330-950 GWe of fusion power world-wide could allow for reducing 1.8-4.3 % of global CO2 emissions from electricity generation, while entailing a slight increase of levelized system electricity cost (by approx. 0.1-0.4 Eurocents/kWh). By the end of century, the estimated share of fusion in regional electricity mixes varies from 1.5 to 23% depending on the region. It is concluded that economic analysis of fusion technology should be complemented with the evaluation of the whole fusion RTD program in terms of social rate of return taking into account its external “spillover” benefits.
Proceedings of 17th ANS Topical Meeting on the Technology of Fusion Energy, Albuquerque, NM, USA, November 2006
E.GNANSOUNOU, D.BEDNYAGIN, “Multi-Regional Long-Term Electricity Supply Scenarios with Fusion”
Analysis of international energy statistics and scenario data relevant to Fusion PLANELEC Study, LASEN-EPFL, 2004 – 2006
E. GNANSOUNOU, D. BEDNYAGIN, “Input Assumptions for Long-term Energy Scenario Studies with PLANELEC-Pro Model”, Working paper, LASEN-EPFL, Feb 2006
Proceedings of 1st IAEA Technical Meeting on First Generation of Fusion Power Plant – Design and Technology, Vienna, Austria, July 2005
E. GNANSOUNOU, D.BEDNYAGIN, “Potential Role of Fusion Power Generation in a Very Long Term Electricity Supply Perspective: Case of Western Europe”
Web-links
Fusion Energy R&D Program: Organisation, Funding, State-of-the-Art
- “Fusion for Energy” – The European Joint Undertaking for ITER and the Development of Fusion Energy
- European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA)
- EU Fusion Energy Research
- ITER project
Fusion Energy: Socio-economic aspects
Wendelstein 7-X project