Predicting the Status of Project Portfolios Using Markov Chains
Published: 24.09.25 — Firms often manage hundreds of concurrent projects with uncertain status trajectories. A new conference paper by Prof. Thomas A. Weber (Chair of Operations, Economics and Strategy, EPFL) introduces a finite-state Markov-chain framework that tracks and forecasts the evolving composition of project portfolios. The method yields forward-looking estimates of success rates, average durations, and resource balance across active and idle projects, supporting earlier risk detection and data-driven reprioritization at the portfolio level. Presented at the 2025 IEEE 5th International Conference on Smart Information Systems and Technologies (SIST), the work demonstrates that the forecasts remain robust even when the underlying identification is moderately noisy, making the approach practical for real organizations with imperfect data.