Risk evaluation of mosquito-borne disease transmission through urban commutes pathways


Prof. Claudia Binder, Emanuele Massaro – HERUS Lab

More than 80% of the world’s population is at risk from at least one vector-borne disease, and more than half at risk from two or more. At city scale level, most of the studies tend to restrict their analysis to the individuals’ risk to acquire the disease, the incidence and prevalence of the disease, its severity and long-term impact on the health of the population. This is the obvious first step, but it does not consider many important aspects that characterize the impact of the mobility at the city scale level. We integrate both stylized and data driven model of mobility in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents and go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system–level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the reported cases during the recent dengue outbreaks in Singapore.