To answer this question, our project combines satellite observations, species distribution models, and physiological measurements to map and predict the thermal limits of Europe’s dominant tree species.
Using high-resolution surface temperature data from satellites, we first identify the thermal environments that trees currently experience across the continent. We then link these observations to species distribution models, revealing where forests already approach their thermal limits and where future warming may push them beyond their tolerance range.
To ground these large-scale patterns in biology, we directly measure the thermal thresholds of photosynthesis and leaf function for the most important European tree species from cool temperate to Mediterranean regions. This unique combination of remote sensing, ecological modeling, and experimental physiology allows us to bridge scales from leaves to landscapes.
A key question we address is how thermal tolerance shifts within species and through time – for example, whether populations from warmer regions or trees acclimated to heat show greater resilience. Ultimately, our goal is to predict future thermal thresholds under various climate scenarios and identify the regions and species most at risk from increasing heat stress.
By integrating continental-scale data with experimental insights, this project provides a new understanding of how close Europe’s forests are to their thermal limits and what that means for their survival in a rapidly warming world.
For more information contact Helena Vallicrosa or Charlotte Grossiord.
