A probabilistic approach to design civil engineering structures

Semester Project – Spring 2015

Currently, most structural design is done via a deterministic approach, being the easiest, fastest and best-known approach to civil engineers. Even if deterministic design guarantees a certain structural safety proposed by the SIA Standard prescriptions, it is of interest to consider a probabilistic approach in order to quantify structural safety and reliability that cannot be assessed with a deterministic approach.

The first step of this project was to study the theory behind deterministic and probabilistic design, as well as the Monte Carlo theory, widely used in probabilistic approaches in order to assess failure probability of a studied phenomena.

 

The second step of the project consisted in an implementation of the Monte Carlo theory to real examples. Starting from the simple case of a steel bar subjected to axial loading, using the open-source software Akantu via a Python interface, we implemented the Monte Carlo theory to assess reliability of a more complex structure which we chose to be an existing dam. The goal was to include probabilistic theory in the frame of dam design principles and study the influence of the different parameters on the failure probability.

 

 

Monte-Carlo evaluation of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of maximum compression stress computed in a dam (see images below).

 

Students:

Gabrielle Muller, [email protected]

Gabriele Albertini, [email protected]

Advisors:

Fabian Barras (LSMS), [email protected]

Jean-François Molinari (LSMS), [email protected]